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新西兰代写Essay-Macro economics evaluation

时间:2015-10-18 来源:未知 编辑:梦想论文 阅读:
1。该问题涉及经济增长的马尔萨斯人口模型。提供一个简单的模型及其平衡轮廓。

Here is the brief introduction of the model of the Economic Theory of Malthus: at the very first let us suppose an economy with a given area of land; if the labor force keeps growing in this economy, the area of the spare land appropriated to the labor force will surely decrease by that time. In this processing, the Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns begins to take its effect(David N. Weil, 2005, p547). The continuing increase of the ratio of labor against land leads the margin output of labor to go down accompanied with a decrease in the productivity. If this process arrives to the extreme circumstance, as a result, the economy can barely provide the products which are supposed to sustain the people’s basic survival owing to the excessive labor.(Weil, 2005 and Williamson, 2005)
这里是马尔萨斯的经济理论模型简介:首先让我们假设一个经济与一个给定的土地面积;如果劳动力保持经济增长,对闲置土地划拨到劳动力的地区将减少时间。在这个过程中,边际收益递减规律开始发挥作用(戴维N. Weil,2005,p547)。劳动对土地的比例的不断增加,导致劳动力的边际产出下降伴随着生产率降低。如果这个过程到极端的情况下,作为一个结果,经济几乎不能提供可以维持人的基本生存由于过度劳动的产品。(Weil,2005威廉姆森,2005)

The model of the Economic Theory of Malthus does not give a determinative formula; the following formula will help to its understanding.
马尔萨斯的经济理论模型不给一个决定性的公式;下面的公式,将有助于理解。

This theory applies to the economic model as below:
该理论应用于经济模型如下:

The total income is the function of all the production factors; Production equation is Y= F(K,L). Y represents the output; K stands for the capital and L means the labor force. is the revenue per capital.( Dornbusch, Fischer and Si Tanzi 2007)
总收入是所有生产要素的生产函数;方程:y = f(K,L)。Y代表输出;K代表资本和L意味着劳动力。是人均收入。(Dornbusch,菲舍尔和Si Tanzi 2007)

(a) For each of the following, illustrate what happens to a country’s population size and per capita income in the short run and in the long run. Explain your results.
(一)下面会发生什么,说明一个国家的人口规模和人均在短期和长期收入。解释你的结果。

i. Scientists discover a new strain of wheat that can produce twice as much grain per acre.
一,科学家发现一种新的小麦,可以产生两倍的粮食每亩。

Population will expand, the revenue per capita declines in the short term while increases in the long run..
人口将扩大,人均收入下降,在短期内,而在长期内增加收入的。

The output of the wheat increases by 200%, in that case, the income per capita in the short term - (which is the result of the total income divided by the total population)--will rise because the number of the total population can’t increase sharply in the short run. While in the perspective of a long term, more food will contribute to the growth of population, and the population size will expand at the speed of a somewhat geometric series, which is always higher than the growth rate of the food. Therefore, the income per capita in the long term will decrease. If the expansion of the population reaches at the extreme point at which people can only sustain a mere survival, it will come to a halt.


200%的小麦产量的增加,在这种情况下,人均收入在短期(这是总收入的结果除以总人口)——将上升因为人口总数不能在短期内大幅增加。在一个长期的角度来看,更多的食物将有助于人口的增长,以及人口规模将在一个几何级数的速度膨胀,这始终是高于粮食增长率。因此,人均收入在长期内会下降。如果这些人只能维持生存的极端点达到人口的膨胀,它会停下来的。


ii. A war kills half of the population

人口的急剧下降,人均收入在短期上升,但长期下降。

Suppose that half of the population is killed by a war, then the population of the whole nation will descend by half while the total production will remain the same in the short term, resulting, in the short-term ,the income per capita’s increase. Conditions in the long term just functions in the same way as what we have mentioned above in Example 1. “More foods and few people” makes the population grow by leaps and bounds while the income per capita in the long term declines. Economy finally may fall into a poverty trap.
假设人口的一半是由战争死亡,那么整个国家的人口将下降一半,而总产量将保持不变,在短期内,从而,在短期内,人均收入的增加。条件在长期以同样的方式只是作为我们所提到的例子1。“更多的食物和一些人”使人口突飞猛进的成长,而人均收入的长期下降。经济最终会陷入贫困陷阱。

iii. A volcanic eruption kills half the people and destroys half the land
三、火山爆发杀死了半人半和破坏的土地

Population declines sharply, the revenue keeps steady in the short term but declines in the long run.
人口的急剧下降,收入保持稳定,在短期内,但在长期的下降。

Suppose half of the population is killed and half of the total lands are destroyed by the eruption of a volcano. In this situation, labor and lands are reduced by 50% at the same time, while the short-term income per capita will not change according to the income formula. Nevertheless, in the long run, the total population will increase and the ruined lands will be reclaimed, that is to say, in a broader sense, the velocity of population growth is always higher than that of the lands’ reclamation, which accounts for the decrease of the long-term income.
假设一半的人口死亡总数的一半的土地是由火山喷发摧毁了。在这种情况下,劳动力和土地减少了50%的同时,而人均短期的收入将不会根据所得公式的变化。然而,从长远来看,总人口将增加和毁坏的土地将被回收,也就是说,在更广泛的意义上说,人口增长速度始终高于土地复垦,占长期收入减少。

iv. There is a technological advance (or perhaps a public health programme) which reduces
四、有技术进步(也许是一个公共健康计划)减少了

death rates
死亡率

Population’s expansion leads to the stable condition of the revenue per capita in the short term , however, in the long run, the revenue per capital will decline.
人口膨胀导致在短期内,人均收入稳定的条件,但是,从长远来看,人均收入将下降。

The development in terms of the technology won’t do a great change to the size of the total population and the income per capita in the short term. However, in a long term, the decrease of death rate will result in the increase of the population. The Improvement here can be interpreted as something similar to a public health care plan which will not add the income. Hence, the income per capita in the long term decreases due to the increase of population.


在技术上的发展不会有很大的变化的总人口规模和人均收入在短期内。然而,从长远来看,死亡率的下降会导致人口的增加。这里的改进可以被解释为类似于公共卫生保健计划将不会增加收入。因此,由于人口的增加降低了人均收入在长期。

 

v. A change in cultural attitudes towards parenthood means that for a given income, people now want to have more children than they formerly had.
五、改变的文化态度的父母,对于一个给定的收入,现在人们想要的孩子比他们以前有更多的。

Population increases, which attributes to the steady condition of the revenue per capita in the short run and to the declining of it in the long term.
人口的增加,这些属性在短期内人均收入稳定条件和减少它在长期的。

Since the income is fixed and the fluctuations in population will be small in a short run, the increase in the growth rate of people will result for the growth of the population in the long term. In that case of a fixed income and a growing population, the long-term income per capita declines.
自是有固定收入和人口的变化将在短期内是很小的,在人的生长率的提高,将在中长期的人口增长的结果。在这种情况下,固定收入和人口的增长,人均收入的长期下降。


(b) The equation that relates the population growth rate, n, to income per capita, y = Y /L, is
n(y)=
Let T be the total quantity of land in the economy, which is fixed. The function that relates
land per capita and income per capita is
y=A( )
其中一个是衡量生产力。

i. Suppose A is constant. What will the steady-state level of income per capita be?
假设一个恒定。人均收入的稳态水平将是什么?

Hypothesize a fixed A, the only two factors that have an influence on the income per capita are the proportion of lands and the population. At the very beginning, the area of the lands seems to be unlimited compared with the number of the population. With this result, along with the growth of the population, people are prone to be more scattered according to the increase of the lands, which in turn results in the income’s rising in this stage. However, with more and more lands reclaimed, there are no longer adequate spare lands for the growing population and the production per capita decreases, so does the income per capita owing to the growth resulting from the more input of labor force at the very beginning begins to decline. To conclude, if the population is allowed to continues to escalate, the growing population will leads to starvation and starvation will in turn cause the reduction of the population in that way. We call it Steady-state equilibrium in population when the foods supplies can only sustain people’s survival.
假设一个固定的,仅有的两个因素有人均收入的影响是土地和人口的比例。首先,土地的地区似乎随着人口的数目相比是无限的。这样的结果,随着人口的增长,人们很容易分散的根据地增加,从而导致这个阶段中收入的上升。然而,随着越来越多的土地复垦,不再有足够的空闲土地,人口增长和人均产量下降,那么人均由于最初从劳动力更多的输入产生增长的收入开始下降。最后,如果人口被允许继续升级,不断增长的人口将导致饥饿和饥饿会导致这样的人口。我们叫它人口平衡稳定的状态时,食物只能维持人的生存。


ii. Now suppose A grows at 10% per year. What will be the steady-state level of income per capita? Explain what is going on. the steady-state level of income per capita will increase
II。现在假设一个生长在每年10%。什么是人均收入的稳态水平?解释发生了什么。人均收入的稳态水平将增加

Assume that A increases by 10% each year. One year later, it is 1.01y, two years later, 1.01*1.01y, etc. Consequently, the equation breaks away from the Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns and will be growing as time goes on. The improvement in terms of the area of the technology adds to the income per capita and contributes to the Steady-state equilibrium with a higher income per capita and a higher ratio of capital against labor.
假定每增加10%年。一年以后,它是1.01y,两年后,1.01×1.01y,等。因此,该方程脱离边际报酬递减的规律,将随着时间的推移越来越多。在该技术领域方面的改善会增加人均收入,有助于更高的人均收入和较高比例的资本和劳动的稳态平衡。

2. This question deals with the endogenous growth model with human capital due to Lucas. (We’ll
2。这个问题是由于卢卡斯与人力资本的内生增长模型。(我们会

use the notation due to Williamson). Provide a brief outline of the model and its equilibrium.
由于使用威廉姆森符号)。提供一个简单的模型及其平衡轮廓。

The Full Essential Factor Economic Growth model is: △Y/Y=△K/K+△L/L+△A/A =MPK/K+MPL/L+△A/A (1)(Dornbusch, Fischer, Si Tanzi, 2007)
全要素的经济增长模型:△Y/y =△K / K +△/L+△/a MPK / K+MPL/L+△/ A(1)(Dornbusch,菲舍尔,斯坦齐,2007)

The core hypothesis of the Lucas model is:
卢卡斯模型的核心假设是:

1. The ratio of the growth in the area of the human resource is somewhat like a linear function of the time which people need to accumulate the human resource, that’s why comes out of the branch of the office of the human resource.
1。在人力资源方面的增长率是有点像,人们需要积累人力资源的时间的线性函数,这就是为什么出来的人力资源办公室的分支。

2. The level of each individual human capital not only has an effect on the productivity of the individual himself, but also produces a deep influence on the productivity of the whole society (however, every individual economy doesn’t take this into consideration), which is the basis of the model resulting in the growing scale revenue (seeing from the large picture of the whole society) and the increasing effects of the government policy.
2。每一级的个体人力资本不仅对个人的生产率的效果,而且对整个社会的生产力的深刻影响(然而,每一个体经济不考虑到这一点),这是导致不断增长的规模收益模型的基础上(的全社会的大画面看到)和增加政府政策的影响。

H(t)=H(t)g[1-u(t)] (2)
h(t)= H(T)G [ 1-u(t)](2)

Q(t)=AK(t)u(t)H(t) (3)
Q(t)= AK(T)u(t)h(t)(3)

Q represents the output quantity(-ies),k stands for the material capital, while h means the human resource.( Williamson, 2005)
Q代表输出量(工业),K代表物质资本,而H意味着人力资源(威廉姆森,2005)。


(a) Suppose that z, the marginal product of efficiency units of labour, increases. What effect does this have on the rates of growth and the levels of human capital, consumption, and output? Explain your results
(一)假设z,劳动的边际产品效率单位,增加。什么样的影响,这对增长率和人力资本,消费,产出水平?解释你的结果

The function ascending indicates the increase of the assumption goods.
功能上升表明假设商品的增加。

If MPL-the marginal output of the labor force increases, according to the model 1, there will appear an increase of the economical productivity ratio △Y/Y. It plus with the fact that the growth of MPL equals to the increase of the level of the human resource capital, as a result, through the analysis of the third pattern of the Lucas Model, brings an increase of the output. In accordance with formula Y=C+I+G+NX(Dornbusch, Fischer, Si Tanzi, 2007), the curve of the assumption ascends, which accounts for the growth of the assumption products.
如果MPL劳动力的边际产出增加,根据模型1,会出现经济生产率△年率它加,MPL增长等于对人力资本水平的增加,增加的事实,作为一个结果,通过对卢卡斯模型第三种模式的分析,使产量增加。在公式y=C + I + G + NX根据(Dornbusch,菲舍尔,斯坦齐,2007),假设的曲线上升,占产品增长的假设。


(b)引入政府的活动如下。除了你的工作时间在生产单位

goods, the representative consumer works v units of time for the government and produces gvH
商品,消费者代表作品为政府单位和生产时间V GVH

goods for government use in the current period, where g > 0. The consumer now spends 1 − u − v units of time each period accumulating human capital
在当前时期政府使用的商品,其中G>0。消费者现在花1−U−V单位各时间的积累人力资本

i. suppose that v increases with u decreasing by an equal amount. Determine the effects on the
我认为V随你减少等量的。确定的影响

level and the rate of growth of consumption. Draw a diagram showing the initial path followed
水平和消费增长率。画一张图说明初始路径

by the natural logarithm of consumption and the corresponding path after these changes.
消费的自然对数和相应的路径后,这些变化。

△u=△v, The curve will slow down.
△U =△V,曲线会慢下来。

.According to the hypothesis of the Lucas Model, .the ratio of the increasement in the area of the human resource is somewhat like a linear function of the time which people need to accumulate the human resource. Moreover, from the implied meaning of the above subject, l-u-v is steady while the human capital increases at a constant speed, on another hand, u is decreasing while v is developing on the opposite direction, therefore, the assumption goods reduce by u while the community products escalate by gvH which is bigger than u. To sum up, what has been mentioned above together with the equation formula Y=C+I+G+NX(Dornbusch, Fischer, Si Tanzi, 2007.) leads to the reduction of C as well as the growth of G ( nevertheless, all the other elements remain the same).


。根据卢卡斯模型,假设。在人力资源方面的增长率是有点像,人们需要积累人力资源的时间的线性函数。此外,从上述主题寓意,l-u-v稳定而在恒定转速下的人力资本的增加,另一方面,你逐渐减少,V是在相反的方向发展,因此,假设商品减少u而社区产品升级,移植物抗宿主均大于美国综上所述,以上所提到的一起方程公式y=C + I + G + NX(Dornbusch,菲舍尔,斯坦齐,2007。)导致C的减少以及G的增长(尽管如此,所有其他因素保持不变)。

ii. suppose that v increases with u held constant. Determine the effects on the level and the rate
II。假设V增大与你保持不变。确定的水平和速度的影响

of growth of consumption. Draw a diagram showing the initial path followed by the natural
的消费增长。画一张图说明初始路径遵循自然

logarithm of consumption and the corresponding path after v increases
在V增加消费和相应的路径对数

The curve will at first descends vertically and ascends slowly, ending up in go beyond the former result.
曲线将在第一垂直下行和上升缓慢,最终超越以前的结果。

.△v>0,△u=0, hence l-u-v decreases, the speed of the increase of the human resource capital decreases at the same time, contributing to the result that the assumption goods remain the same while the community products keeps increasing, which finally leads to the growth of the output and the more and more decreasing speed of its growth ratio. When the speed’s increasing is reduced to zero and arrives at a balanced state, the assumption goods increase at the very first but remain stable at the very last.
。△V>0,△U = 0,因此l-u-v减小,同时人力资本的增加而减小的速度,导致的结果,假设商品保持一致而社区产品不断增加,最终导致产量的增长和日益减少的其增长的速度比。当速度的增加减小到零,达到平衡状态,在第一次但仍在最后稳定增长的假设商品。

iii. Explain your results and any difference between parts 2(b)i and 2(b)ii.
三、解释你的结果与零件之间的任何差异(B 2)我和2(B)II。

In the comparison i with ii, we can find out that the major difference is that △u and △v are a pair of counterpart in their relationship in the model of i, while ii does not work in that way, hence comes out the diversified consequences.
在比较我和II,我们可以发现,主要的区别是,△U和V△在我的模型在他们的关系中一对对应,而II不那样的工作,因此出现了多元化的后果。

(c) Suppose the government makes a one-time investment in new state school buildings, which results in a one-time reduction in consumption. The new buildings increase the efficiency with which human capital is accumulated. Determine the effects of this on the paths of aggregate consumption and aggregate output over time.
(C)假设政府在新的国家的学校建筑的一次性投资,导致消费减少一次性。新的建筑物,提高效率,人力资本积累。确定这对总消费和总产出的影响随着时间的推移,路径。

The final result is the increase of the whole assumption goods.
最终的结果是整个假设商品的增加。

From the Endogenous Economy Model of Lucas, we can arrive at the conclusion that, the human capital, situating at a centered position, is a very important element in stimulating the social economy. Government has increased investment in education, aiming in improving the stock of the human capital in terms of knowledge and skills, which, in another word, lays a solid foundation for the development of the human capital as well as its full use(Jagdish Handa, 2000; Eckhard Siggel, 2005). By this way, although the popularity of the construction of school buildings will reduce the assumption output in the short term, it will increase the accumulation productivity and speed ration of the human resource capital and will enlarge the accumulative quantity of the human resource quickly in the long run, which will attribute to the high-speed development of our economy as well as the substantial increase of the assumption level in general and the output in total, that is to say, i increases while c goes down, with the implied meaning of the subject, H(t)’s increase will lead to the growth of the output at the very last, to go further, the assumption level c in general will work in the same way (Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt, Maxine Brant-Collett,1998).


从卢卡斯的内生经济增长模型,我们可以得出结论,人力资本,位于中心位置,是促进社会经济的一个重要元素。政府增加教育投资,以提高人力资本存量的知识和技能,它,换句话说,为人力资本的发展奠定坚实的基础,以及其充分利用(贾格迪什2000;田,埃克哈德siggel,2005)。通过这种方式,虽然学校建筑的普及将在短期内降低的假设,输出,它将积累增加生产力和人力资本的速度比和扩大累积量的人力资源在长期运行得更快,这将导致我们的经济的高速发展在一般的假设水平和总产量大幅增加,也就是说,我随C下降,与主体的寓意,h(t)的增加将导致在最后输出的增长,更进一步,假设C级一般会以相同的方式工作(阿吉翁,彼得何汇特,玛克辛布兰特科利特,1998)。

(d) Reinterpret the endogenous growth model as follows. Suppose there are two groups of people in a country, the low skilled and the high skilled. The low skilled have less human capital per person initially than do the high skilled. In the economy as a whole, output is produced using efficiency units of labour, and total factor productivity is z, just as in the ‘standard’ model. Each individual in this economy accumulates human capital on his/her own, and each has one unit of time to split between human capital accumulation and work. However, now b = bh for the high skilled and b = bl for the low skilled. In the United States, there has been an increase in the gap between wages of high-skil
(d)重新诠释的内生增长模型如下。如果有两组人在一个国家,低技能和高技能。低技能的个人人力资本少的最初比高技能。在整个经济中,输出是通过劳动效率生产的单位,与全要素生产率是Z,正如在“标准”模式。每一个人在这个经济中人力资本积累对他/她自己的,和每一个时间单位的人力资本的积累和工作之间的分裂。然而,现在B = BH的高技能和B = BL为低技能工人。在美国,已经有高技能工资之间的差距增加

参考文献:

Acocella, Nicola and Brendan , Jones. ( 2005). Economic policy in the age of globalisation , Cambridge University Press.
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