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Key words: FTA ISM model of the effect factors and Countermeasures
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Foundation item: This is the Ministry of education key projects of philosophy and Social Sciences "Chinese Northeast Asian strategy and policy research; Jilin University" the fundamental research funds for the project "the situation on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia security tracking innovation team"; Jilin University graduate innovation research program funded project "study on Countermeasures to strengthen the ability of regional innovation infrastructure".
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One, the research background
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Since 1992, China and South Korea established diplomatic relations, to the rapid development of bilateral economic and trade relations, bilateral trade and cooperation is increasingly extensive, rapid growth of trade volume. According to the Korea customs office statistics, in 1992 South Korea trade on the day, beauty, were $6400000000, $31100000000, $36400000000; and in 2009 were $140900000000, $71200000000, $66700000000. In 2010, China and South Korea trade volume increased to $207100000000, a year-on-year growth of 32%, a record high. Undoubtedly, China has become Korea's largest trading partner countries, South Korea has become the third largest trade partner of China Chinese. Although the bilateral economic and trade development is rapid, but there are still obstacles to the further development of bilateral economic and trade relations, these factors include not only the changes in the international environment, including the reality of their own. In this context, the concept of the establishment of China South Korea FTA, but the present situation, the establishment of China South Korea FTA, there are some favorable factors, there are also some restrictive factors.
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ISM (interpretative structural model) is American scholars (J. Warfield) analysis method as a system analysis of complex social economic system structure and developed in 1973. The characteristic of this method is the mutual influence between the system elements (including one-way or two-way causality relationship, size, exclusive relationship, relationship, subordinate or possessive and so on) the recognition of the complex system is decomposed into a clear hierarchy of multilevel ladder structure, makes the relationship between hierarchical, organized many elements of the perplexing. ISM belongs to the conceptual model, can use the concept structure graphics stick out a mile as to represent the relationship between the elements in the system, is a method of effective structure. Here, has good applicability and practical significance of the relationship between China and South Korea structure by ISM analysis of the influence factors of FTA.
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(a) and FTA influence factors analysis
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For the simple calculation, in this paper, based on many references to select the following parameters as influencing factors of China Korea FTA ISM model. Between the various subsystems and FTA are interrelated, including economic factors (system 1), political factors (system 2), cultural factors (system 3) and other factors (system 4). After analysis, these factors are more significant for China and South Korea FTA, but also can be said to be the leading factors influencing the China Korea FTA. Among them, 1 subsystems including trade structure, industrial structure, technological differences; 2 subsystems including FTA Strategic Motives, political relations, geopolitical and economic system; system 3 includes the Confucian culture, history, psychology and other aspects; 4 subsystems including the deindustrialization of worry. For the simple calculation, in this paper, based on many references to select the following parameters as influencing factors of China Korea FTA interpretative structural model.
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S3 (on the industrial "hollowing out" worry): Chinese industrial manufactured goods, especially iron and steel, automobile and chemical industry production technology is relatively backward, built China Korea FTA, Chinese will be a large number of imports of South Korean high-end steel, automotive and other industrial products, has brought the huge impact for the local industry. In addition, China and South Korea after FTA building, in order to meet the China trade demand, South Korean enterprises will be manufacturing shifted to technology intensive industries, looking forward to the advancement of industrial structure and high additional value, so South Korea low value-added industrial department will carry out structural adjustment, the adjustment will bring huge economic burden South korea. Therefore, it has become China and South Korea in the construction of FTA resistance.
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S4 (unbalanced trade and trade friction): Although China and South Korea have very strong complementarity in trade structure, but the trade deficit to expand year by year China korea. The trade deficit between China and Korea has become the bilateral economic and trade cooperation more difficult problem. Not only persistent trade deficits have been difficult to change, and the trade friction event also emerge in an endless stream, trade friction is more concentrated in the field of agricultural products. The China ROK FTA, China will asked South Korea to expand agricultural trade liberalization, accelerate the liberalization of trade in agricultural products, but South Korea worry about changing the protection policies of agriculture, accelerate the liberalization process of agricultural products will threaten the food security, to bring the impact of agricultural products.
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S5 (technical differences): South Korea has strong processing and production technology and advantages of high technology, and China based on technology and aerospace technology level is higher; and development of their core technology level also exist differences and complementarity, it provides the possibility for the two sides to carry out technical cooperation.
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S9 (historical and psychological factors): with the rapid development of economy China, China has gradually become the motive force of the economic development of East Asia, a part of South Koreans think Chinese economic and political rise China restore ancient dominate Asia's "tributary system" model, excessive dependence China leads to South Korea is sucked into the "Chinese economic circle", to become a vassal Chinese economy. Therefore, this kind of psychological factors also become the two countries forged FTA barriers.
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S10 (GEO political factors): geopolitical point of view: who controls the edge, who can control the Eurasia, which decided the fate of the world. The Korean Peninsula unique geographical position, it became the one one continental ?? Russia, Japan sea power country one one core power interchange. South Korea also face the two sea, so Japan, America and Russia are actively seeking to negotiate FTA with South Korea, consolidate and enhance their status in Northeast asia. For Russia, South Korea and the conclusion of FTA is the mainspring of oil and other resources attraction, while Russia can also rely on resource advantage to increase its strategic advantages in Northeast asia. For Japan, and South Korea to actively FTA helps to speed up the implementation of political power process, prevent China become dominant country in East asia. America as import market and the largest military power, the economic integration of Northeast Asia area showing a high degree of attention. South Korea in Northeast Asia can be good for the survival and development can not get rid of dependence on the America. At the same time, in order to enhance America in East Asia economic cooperation, firmly in the Asian economic status must contain Chinese, contain and fusion. Therefore America want to use Korean to contain Chinese purpose. The prevention and containment China is an important factor in South Korea signed FTA, America hopes to strengthen economic and trade ties with East Asia through the FTA, South Korea into the Chinese hinder economic circle, weaken the Chinese influence in East asia. Han Mei FTA signed the China ROK FTA one disaster after another, bilateral FTA negotiations more difficult.
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S11 (unbalanced bilateral direct investment relationship): in recent years, South Korean investment in China has always maintained in the other countries of the world investment investment to the front, South Korea on China direct investment grew rapidly, but not Chinese for South Korean investment proportion and scale. In 2010, Chinese of South Korea invested US $1200000000 in foreign investment, China countries ranked fifteenth. The same year, the investment of Korea in Chinese was $31800000000, accounting for 1/5 of total foreign direct investment in korea.
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(two) ISM model
??????A????????????????????????????????????11?????????????????
The establishment of the adjacency matrix A. Based on the reading and analysis of relevant literature and content, the relationship between determine the impact factors, the establishment of the adjacency matrix according to the relationship between the 11 elements of the system of the selected.
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In South Korea the conclusion of the FTA, China should size up the situation, for sensitive industry department to the transitional arrangements reasonable, as far as possible to take the stage tariff relief way, so as to reduce the sensitivity to the industrial structure adjustment costs. Chinese agricultural products impact on Korean agriculture has been the FTA negotiations in the resistance, how to determine the agricultural products tariff reduction variety and time arrangement is the focus of the negotiations. In addition, China's textile industry, industrial manufactured goods will be a tremendous impact in China and South Korea after the conclusion of the FTA. China should try to avoid the industrial liberalization of trade negotiations, first on the impact of small products trade liberalization agreement, from easy to difficult, after the first local address sensitive industry overall trade liberalization.
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4 appropriate concessions, in exchange for more cooperation opportunities
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South Korea FTA signed for Northeast Asian economic integration of East Asia, to promote peace and stability in the region of great significance. In both the FTA negotiation process will inevitably encounter various problems and disputes, it is necessary to make appropriate concessions, temporarily give up a small part of interests, in exchange for more cooperation opportunities. In order to reduce South Korea fears of a "hollowing out", our country can establish some South Korean enterprises in China investment limited terms; for agricultural products and open problems of South Korea, China can temporarily shelved to multilateral mechanisms in the future to solve. In a word, China should make appropriate concessions, to take a positive attitude to look forward, to the China ROK FTA protocol.
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Reference.
[1]??????FTA ???????[?]????????2010(12)?
[1] Lou Zhaohui. China and Korea FTA contracting strategy analysis of [J]. international trade issues, 2010 (12).
[2]??????????FTA?????????????[?]???????2008(3)?
[2] Cheng Wei, Wu Hao. The process of the establishment of China South Korea FTA in the agricultural products trade arrangement conception [J]. Northeast Asia Forum, 2008 (3).
[3]??????????????????????????[?]????????????2004?
[3] Wang Houshuang. The China Japan Korea Free Trade Area and the revitalization of the old industrial base of [M]. research on interaction of Shenyang: Liaoning people's publishing house, 2004
[4]????????FTA ??????[?]??????2009(4)?
[4] Xu ??. Study on the process and the resistance [J]. of economic FTA the establishment of China South Korea, 2009 (4).
[5]?????????????[?]??????2009(7)?
[5] Qi Min. China Japan ROK cooperation pragmatic strategy of [J]. Dongyue forum, 2009 (7).
[6]????????????????????[?]??????2010—05—31.
[6] Du Shangze. Wen Jiabao attended the third China Japan ROK leaders meeting [N]. the people's daily, 2010 - 05 - 31
[7]Yoichi Funabashi.Japan-Korea FTA cornerstone of the East Asia Community[?]?East Asia Forum.
[7]Yoichi Funabashi.Japan-Korea FTA cornerstone of the East Asia Community[J].East Asia Forum.