关 键 词：中韩FTA ISM模型 影响因素 对策
Key words: FTA ISM model of the effect factors and Countermeasures
基金项目：本文是教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“中国东北亚战略与政策研究”；吉林大学基本科研业务费项目“朝鲜半岛形势追踪与东北亚地区安全创新团队”；吉林大学研究生创新研究计划基金资助项目“加强区域创新基础能力建设的对策研究”。
Foundation item: This is the Ministry of education key projects of philosophy and Social Sciences "Chinese Northeast Asian strategy and policy research; Jilin University" the fundamental research funds for the project "the situation on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia security tracking innovation team"; Jilin University graduate innovation research program funded project "study on Countermeasures to strengthen the ability of regional innovation infrastructure".
一、研究背景
One, the research background
1992年中韩建交以来，两国经贸关系得以迅猛发展，双方贸易合作的领域日益广泛，贸易额增长迅速。据韩国关税厅统计，1992年韩国对中、日、美的贸易额分别为64亿美元、311亿美元、364亿美元；而到了2009年依次为1409亿美元、712亿美元、667亿美元。2010年，中韩贸易额增长到2071亿美元，同比增长32%，创历史新高。无疑，中国已经成为了韩国第一大贸易伙伴国，韩国也成为了中国第三大贸易伙伴国。尽管两国经贸发展迅速，但是仍然存在着阻碍两国经贸关系进一步发展的制约因素，这些因素既包括国际环境的变化，也包括两国自身的现实基础。在这种背景下，两国提出了建立中韩FTA的构想，但是就两国目前的状况而言，建立中韩FTA，既存在着一些有利因素，同时也存在一些制约因素。
Since 1992, China and South Korea established diplomatic relations, to the rapid development of bilateral economic and trade relations, bilateral trade and cooperation is increasingly extensive, rapid growth of trade volume. According to the Korea customs office statistics, in 1992 South Korea trade on the day, beauty, were $6400000000, $31100000000, $36400000000; and in 2009 were $140900000000, $71200000000, $66700000000. In 2010, China and South Korea trade volume increased to $207100000000, a year-on-year growth of 32%, a record high. Undoubtedly, China has become Korea's largest trading partner countries, South Korea has become the third largest trade partner of China Chinese. Although the bilateral economic and trade development is rapid, but there are still obstacles to the further development of bilateral economic and trade relations, these factors include not only the changes in the international environment, including the reality of their own. In this context, the concept of the establishment of China South Korea FTA, but the present situation, the establishment of China South Korea FTA, there are some favorable factors, there are also some restrictive factors.
上世纪80年代以来，作为经济一体化形式的双边及多边FTA在全球范围内迅速发展，但是由于韩国能够充分享受到多边自由贸易体制的好处，无心涉及FTA；同样中国也没有充分重视FTA的作用。90年代末期，由于FTA在全球范围内迅速扩大及其经济效益的凸显，WTO体制的局限性日益显现，包括中韩在内的各国逐渐认识到缔结FTA的重要性。
新世纪以来，中韩FTA构想逐渐得到认同。2004年APEC会议期间，中国国家主席胡锦涛和韩国总统卢武铉就中韩缔结FTA的可行性达成共识，标志着加快组建中韩FTA步伐的开始。2005年3月，中国国务院发展研究中心和韩国对外经济政策研究院正式签署“建立中韩FTA的可行性研究备忘录”，就启动“中韩FTA可行性和政策提案民间共同研究”达成协议，这项研究主要涉及中韩贸易投资，经济合作的现状与中韩缔结FTA对各产业的影响以及政策分析。
2007年3月，中韩FTA进入官产学联合研究阶段，中国商务部与韩国外交通商部启动了“中韩FTA官产学联合可行性研究”，主要涉及建立中韩FTA的涵盖领域，贸易投资自由化和对双方产业与宏观经济的影响。2008年5月，韩国总统李明博在中国进行国事访问时，与中国国家主席胡锦涛发表了《联合声明》。声明强调“双方对中韩FTA的官产学联合研究表示赞赏，两国应继续朝着互惠互利的方向积极推进中韩FTA的构建。”这表明了两国FTA研究开始步入了一个新阶段。2010年5月,中国总理温家宝出席在韩国召开的中日韩FTA联合官产学研究的启动会议时,建议中韩开始FTA谈判。同时，双方商务部门也签署了《自由贸易协定谅解备忘录》。2011年7月，中韩政府进一步达成协议，宣布将于年内开始中韩FTA的协商。
本文对中韩FTA影响因素进行分析,便于我们对影响中韩FTA因素的整体状况有一个全面、清醒的认识，也可以找出制约中韩FTA的主要因素。通过运用系统工程方法系统分析各种因素之间的关系，通过解释结构建模方法确定各因素之间的影响关系，建立邻接矩阵、可达矩阵，形成影响因素的递阶层次关系，总结得出影响中韩FTA的深层原因、浅层原因、中层原因和表层原因，能够为改善中韩FTA的不利因素提供指导。
二、影响中韩FTA缔结因素的ISM模型
ISM (interpretative structural model) is American scholars (J. Warfield) analysis method as a system analysis of complex social economic system structure and developed in 1973. The characteristic of this method is the mutual influence between the system elements (including one-way or two-way causality relationship, size, exclusive relationship, relationship, subordinate or possessive and so on) the recognition of the complex system is decomposed into a clear hierarchy of multilevel ladder structure, makes the relationship between hierarchical, organized many elements of the perplexing. ISM belongs to the conceptual model, can use the concept structure graphics stick out a mile as to represent the relationship between the elements in the system, is a method of effective structure. Here, has good applicability and practical significance of the relationship between China and South Korea structure by ISM analysis of the influence factors of FTA.
（一）中韩FTA影响因素分析
(a) and FTA influence factors analysis
为计算简便，本文在参考大量文献的基础上选取以下指标作为影响中韩FTA的因素建立ISM模型。构成中韩FTA的各个子系统之间是相互联系的，其中包括经济因素（子系统1）、政治因素（子系统2）、文化因素（子系统3）和其它因素（子系统4）。经分析，这些因素对于中韩FTA的影响较为显著，也可以说是影响中韩FTA的主导因素。其中，子系统1又包括贸易结构、产业结构、技术差异等；子系统2又包括FTA战略动机、政治关系、地缘政治以及经济制度等；子系统3又包括儒家文化、历史心理等方面；子系统4又包括对产业空洞化的担心等。为计算简便，本文在参考大量文献的基础上选取以下指标作为影响中韩FTA的因素建立解释结构模型。
For the simple calculation, in this paper, based on many references to select the following parameters as influencing factors of China Korea FTA ISM model. Between the various subsystems and FTA are interrelated, including economic factors (system 1), political factors (system 2), cultural factors (system 3) and other factors (system 4). After analysis, these factors are more significant for China and South Korea FTA, but also can be said to be the leading factors influencing the China Korea FTA. Among them, 1 subsystems including trade structure, industrial structure, technological differences; 2 subsystems including FTA Strategic Motives, political relations, geopolitical and economic system; system 3 includes the Confucian culture, history, psychology and other aspects; 4 subsystems including the deindustrialization of worry. For the simple calculation, in this paper, based on many references to select the following parameters as influencing factors of China Korea FTA interpretative structural model.
S1（贸易结构的互补）：中韩建交以来，两国贸易规模不断扩大，同时贸易结构也不断深化。20世纪90年代，中国向韩国出口的大部分是农产品、矿物质原材料、纺织品、贱金属等技术含量和附加价值低的资源与劳动密集型商品；而韩国向中国出口的商品主要集中在化工、电子、机械、船舶等技术含量和附加值高的技术和资本密集型产品。
S2（产业结构的互补）：目前，我国经济基本处于产业链的末端，而韩国经济处于产业链的中端，韩国的一些过剩产业和被淘汰的产业正在向中国转移，这说明两国产业结构存在较强的互补性。从以往的经贸关系来看，中国在劳动与资源密集型产业具有比较优势，韩国在资本与技术密集型产业上具备比较优势，而这种较强的产业优势互补性也决定了两国未来的经贸利益。
S3 (on the industrial "hollowing out" worry): Chinese industrial manufactured goods, especially iron and steel, automobile and chemical industry production technology is relatively backward, built China Korea FTA, Chinese will be a large number of imports of South Korean high-end steel, automotive and other industrial products, has brought the huge impact for the local industry. In addition, China and South Korea after FTA building, in order to meet the China trade demand, South Korean enterprises will be manufacturing shifted to technology intensive industries, looking forward to the advancement of industrial structure and high additional value, so South Korea low value-added industrial department will carry out structural adjustment, the adjustment will bring huge economic burden South korea. Therefore, it has become China and South Korea in the construction of FTA resistance.
S4（贸易不平衡与贸易摩擦）：尽管中韩两国在贸易结构有很强的互补性，但是中国对韩国的贸易逆差逐年扩大。中韩贸易逆差已经成为了两国经贸合作比较棘手的问题。不仅持续多年的贸易逆差一直难以改变，而且贸易摩擦事件也层出不穷，更多的贸易摩擦集中在农产品领域。缔结中韩FTA后，中国将要求韩国扩大农产品贸易自由化的范围，加快农产品贸易自由化进程，但是韩国担心改变对农业的保护政策，加快农产品的自由化进程会威胁其粮食安全，给农产品带来冲击。
S4 (unbalanced trade and trade friction): Although China and South Korea have very strong complementarity in trade structure, but the trade deficit to expand year by year China korea. The trade deficit between China and Korea has become the bilateral economic and trade cooperation more difficult problem. Not only persistent trade deficits have been difficult to change, and the trade friction event also emerge in an endless stream, trade friction is more concentrated in the field of agricultural products. The China ROK FTA, China will asked South Korea to expand agricultural trade liberalization, accelerate the liberalization of trade in agricultural products, but South Korea worry about changing the protection policies of agriculture, accelerate the liberalization process of agricultural products will threaten the food security, to bring the impact of agricultural products.
S5（技术的差异）：韩国具备较强的加工和生产技术及高新技术上的优势，而中国在基础技术和航空航天技术水平较高；中韩两国核心技术发展水平也存在着差异性与互补性，这为双方开展技术合作提供了可能性。
S5 (technical differences): South Korea has strong processing and production technology and advantages of high technology, and China based on technology and aerospace technology level is higher; and development of their core technology level also exist differences and complementarity, it provides the possibility for the two sides to carry out technical cooperation.
S6（FTA战略动机的差异）：中韩两国推进FTA的战略动机各不相同。韩国希望中韩FTA的建立可以有效控制两国之间的贸易摩擦，减少贸易纠纷，进一步完善两国的贸易互惠政策；保护国际经营能力不足的韩国中小企业；增加对中国的投资，特别是增加在东北三省的投资扩大与朝鲜交流合作的机会，促进朝鲜半岛的统一与东北亚的和平。中国希望通过FTA的缔结，增强国际竞争力，促进贸易自由化进程；拓展政治安全关系，冲击美国在亚洲的围堵战略；不断提升中国在国际政治格局与多边体制中的地位，实现亚洲区域经济的繁荣与发展。
S7（共同的儒家文化）：中韩两国有着得天独厚的地缘优势，是隔海相望的近邻，文化交流的历史源远流长。早在中国的隋、唐时期开始，中韩两国人民互相学习，彼此交流借鉴，创造了灿烂的文化。两国文化一脉相承，都起源于中国的儒家思想，因此两国民众有着天生的亲近感，文化传统相近使两国国民更容易互相沟通和理解。中国的悠久历史、深厚的文化底蕴和资源对韩国人民有强大的吸引力，同时韩流也在中国开始风靡。近些年来，中韩两国的民间交流也向着更深、更广的方向发展。2007年，“中韩交流年”项目正式启动，中韩双方开展了形式多样的交流活动。两国之间文化上的交流与互相融合为建立中韩FTA奠定了深厚的感情基础，进一步扩大了互利合作，促进了两国的共同发展。
S8（政治关系的平稳）：1992年中韩建交以来，始终保持着睦邻友好政治关系，不断建立和完善两国政治和安全对话机制，两国高层领导人不断进行互访和会晤。1998年，两国政府确立了“面向21世纪的合作伙伴关系” 。2003年，两国领导人再次签署《联合声明》，声明强调将“面向21世纪的合作伙伴关系”进一步提升为“全面合作伙伴关系”。2008年5月，两国政府又将“全面合作伙伴关系”提升为战略合作伙伴关系，中韩关系实现了质的飞跃。中国支持朝鲜半岛统一，同时与南北双方都保持睦邻友好政治关系，韩国也宣布承认中国的市场经济地位，承认只有一个中国，支持中国统一。中韩两国政治关系的平稳发展，为双方推进自由贸易区进程铺平了道路。
S9 (historical and psychological factors): with the rapid development of economy China, China has gradually become the motive force of the economic development of East Asia, a part of South Koreans think Chinese economic and political rise China restore ancient dominate Asia's "tributary system" model, excessive dependence China leads to South Korea is sucked into the "Chinese economic circle", to become a vassal Chinese economy. Therefore, this kind of psychological factors also become the two countries forged FTA barriers.
S10（地缘政治因素）：地缘政治的观点认为：谁控制了边缘地带，谁就能控制欧亚大陆，从而决定世界的命运。朝鲜半岛特殊的地理位置决定了它成为陆权国一一中俄、海权国一一美日权力交汇的核心。地处朝鲜半岛的韩国同时面对海陆两个方面，因此日本、美国和俄罗斯等均积极寻求与韩国缔结FTA，巩固和提升各自在东北亚地位。对于俄罗斯来讲，韩国和其缔结FTA的主要推动力是石油等资源的吸引力，而俄罗斯也能凭借资源优势增加其在东北亚地区的战略优势。对于日本来讲，积极与韩国缔结FTA有利于加快实现政治大国的进程，防止中国成为东亚主导国。美国作为全球最大的进口市场与军事强国，对东北亚地区经济一体化表现出了高度关注。韩国为了在东北亚地区能够良好的生存发展就不能摆脱对美国的依赖。同时，美国为了增强在东亚经济合作中的作用，稳固在亚洲的经济地位就必须牵制中国，牵制中韩融合。因此美国想利用韩国达到牵制中国的目的。而防范与牵制中国是美韩签署FTA的一个重要因素，美国希望通过美韩FTA加强与东亚的经贸联系，阻碍韩国进入中国经济圈，削弱中国在东亚地区的影响力。韩美FTA的签订使中韩FTA的缔结雪上加霜，两国FTA谈判难度加大。
S10 (GEO political factors): geopolitical point of view: who controls the edge, who can control the Eurasia, which decided the fate of the world. The Korean Peninsula unique geographical position, it became the one one continental 权国 Russia, Japan sea power country one one core power interchange. South Korea also face the two sea, so Japan, America and Russia are actively seeking to negotiate FTA with South Korea, consolidate and enhance their status in Northeast asia. For Russia, South Korea and the conclusion of FTA is the mainspring of oil and other resources attraction, while Russia can also rely on resource advantage to increase its strategic advantages in Northeast asia. For Japan, and South Korea to actively FTA helps to speed up the implementation of political power process, prevent China become dominant country in East asia. America as import market and the largest military power, the economic integration of Northeast Asia area showing a high degree of attention. South Korea in Northeast Asia can be good for the survival and development can not get rid of dependence on the America. At the same time, in order to enhance America in East Asia economic cooperation, firmly in the Asian economic status must contain Chinese, contain and fusion. Therefore America want to use Korean to contain Chinese purpose. The prevention and containment China is an important factor in South Korea signed FTA, America hopes to strengthen economic and trade ties with East Asia through the FTA, South Korea into the Chinese hinder economic circle, weaken the Chinese influence in East asia. Han Mei FTA signed the China ROK FTA one disaster after another, bilateral FTA negotiations more difficult.
S11（中韩双边直接投资关系失衡）：近些年来，韩国对华投资始终保持在世界其他国家投资对华投资的前几位，韩国对中国直接投资规模增长较快，但是中国对韩国投资的比例和规模不大。 2010年，中国对韩国累计投资12亿美元，在中国对外投资的国家中排第15位。同年，韩国对中国的投资为318亿美元，占韩国总对外直接投资的五分之一。
S11 (unbalanced bilateral direct investment relationship): in recent years, South Korean investment in China has always maintained in the other countries of the world investment investment to the front, South Korea on China direct investment grew rapidly, but not Chinese for South Korean investment proportion and scale. In 2010, Chinese of South Korea invested US $1200000000 in foreign investment, China countries ranked fifteenth. The same year, the investment of Korea in Chinese was $31800000000, accounting for 1/5 of total foreign direct investment in korea.
（二）ISM模型构建
(two) ISM model
建立邻接矩阵A。通过对有关文献内容的阅读和分析，确定影响要素之间的相互关系，根据选定的11个系统要素之间的关系建立邻接矩阵。
The establishment of the adjacency matrix A. Based on the reading and analysis of relevant literature and content, the relationship between determine the impact factors, the establishment of the adjacency matrix according to the relationship between the 11 elements of the system of the selected.
其中，“1”表示要素Si对Sj有某种二元关系。“0”则表示没有某种二元关系。
求解可达矩阵M。利用MATLAB对公式M=(A+I)r-1=(A+I)r进行编程，其中I为单位矩阵，通过执行MATLAB编写的迭代程序得可达矩阵M 如下。
进行区域划分。先求要素的可达集R(Si)，先行集A(Si)，共同集C(Si)和起始集B(S)，结果，如表1 所示。
求解层级划分矩阵。通过编写的MATLAB程序可以得到层级划分矩阵L。
建立递阶结构模型图。由于本文分析对象是中韩FTA，解释结构模型用来表征系统内各因素对中韩FAT(代号S0)的影响以及系统内各个因素的相互关系，因此，在最后的递阶结构模型中，应将中韩FTA加入放在第一层次。本文省去中间过程，直接给出最后的递阶结构模型图，如图1所示。
三、中韩FTA系统的ISM模型分析及对策建议
（一）结构模型分析
从上述得出的ISM递接结构模型图可知，影响中韩FTA构建的因素有四个级别，第一级是中韩双边直接投资关系失衡；第二个级别是贸易结构和产业结构的互补、对产业空洞化的担心、贸易不平衡与摩擦、FTA战略动机的差异、共同的儒家文化和稳定的政治关系；第三个级别是技术的差异和历史心理因素；第四个级别是地缘政治因素。
（二）缔结中韩FTA的对策建议
1.不断扩大中国对韩国的对外直接投资
一般来说，一个国家的经济水平与对外直接投资有很大关系。目前，我国的海外直接投资已经具备了经济条件，未来一定时期内，逐步加大对国际特别是韩国的对外直接投资有重要意义。1995年以来，韩国一直在改善国内的投资环境，但是由于劳工成本高、外资企业本地化难度高和经营风险高等因素一直影响着中国企业进入韩国境内。所以，中国企业要不断克服困难，加大中国企业“走出去”力度，不断扩大在韩国的对外直接投资份额。
2.缩减贸易逆差，发展产业内贸易
中国对韩国贸易逆差逐年扩大，中韩贸易结构趋同。中国要不断改善两国之间的贸易赤字，实现两国产业互补。因此，我国要不断调整产业的发展方向，实现产业内贸易的水平分工，特别是从以传统产业为主的垂直分工，通过产业内贸易转向水平分工，在产品层次上实现差异化战略，不断削减对韩贸易赤字。我国要加强对高技术含量与附加值产业的研发力度，吸引韩国企业在华投资，鼓励本国企业的产品创新与推广，加强与韩国尖端技术产业的交流与合作，促进两国产业内贸易的发展。
3.确定敏感产业，实现合理过渡
In South Korea the conclusion of the FTA, China should size up the situation, for sensitive industry department to the transitional arrangements reasonable, as far as possible to take the stage tariff relief way, so as to reduce the sensitivity to the industrial structure adjustment costs. Chinese agricultural products impact on Korean agriculture has been the FTA negotiations in the resistance, how to determine the agricultural products tariff reduction variety and time arrangement is the focus of the negotiations. In addition, China's textile industry, industrial manufactured goods will be a tremendous impact in China and South Korea after the conclusion of the FTA. China should try to avoid the industrial liberalization of trade negotiations, first on the impact of small products trade liberalization agreement, from easy to difficult, after the first local address sensitive industry overall trade liberalization.
4.做出适当让步，换取更多的合作机会
4 appropriate concessions, in exchange for more cooperation opportunities
中韩FTA的签订对于东北亚经济一体化，促进东亚地区的和平与稳定意义重大。在双方FTA谈判进程中不可避免的会遇到各种问题与争执，我国有必要做出适当让步，暂时放弃一小部分利益，换取更多的合作机会。为了减少韩国对“产业空洞化”的担忧，我国可以制定某些在华韩企的投资金额限制等条款；对于韩国的农产品开放问题，我国也可以暂时搁置到未来的多边机制中去解决。总之，我国要做出适当让步，采取向前看的积极态度，争取早日缔结中韩FTA协议。
South Korea FTA signed for Northeast Asian economic integration of East Asia, to promote peace and stability in the region of great significance. In both the FTA negotiation process will inevitably encounter various problems and disputes, it is necessary to make appropriate concessions, temporarily give up a small part of interests, in exchange for more cooperation opportunities. In order to reduce South Korea fears of a "hollowing out", our country can establish some South Korean enterprises in China investment limited terms; for agricultural products and open problems of South Korea, China can temporarily shelved to multilateral mechanisms in the future to solve. In a word, China should make appropriate concessions, to take a positive attitude to look forward, to the China ROK FTA protocol.
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