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地方政府财政支出与居民消费分析

时间:2022-07-08 来源:未知 编辑:梦想论文 阅读:
Abstract:In theory, the effect of fiscal expenditure impact on residents' consumption can be divided into two aspects: "crowding-in-effect" or "crowding-out-effect". Using the panel data of 16 cities from Anhui province, this paper analyses the influence of local government fiscal expenditure to consumption of urban and rural residents from the two dimensions of the total and structure effects. The results shows: from the total effect, local government fiscal expenditure has "crowd-in-effect" on the consumption of urban and rural residents, and the consumption of urban residents 'crowding-in-effect' is more obvious than that of the rural residents. From the structure effect, the administrative expenditure of local government has "crowding-out-effect" on the consumption of urban and rural residents; the health expenditure has "crowding-in-effect" on the consumption of urban and rural residents; education expenditure has "crowding-in-effect" on consumption of urban residents, but the impact on rural residents' consumption is not obvious; the effects of social security expenditure on bot the urban and rural residents' consumption are not obvious.
 
Key words:local government; fiscal expenditure; residents' consumption; effect

1、 Literature review
 
In recent years, domestic demand has become a new driving force for China's economic growth. In order to expand domestic demand and stimulate residents' consumption, the government has implemented an active fiscal policy and increased fiscal expenditure, especially on people's livelihood. At the central economic work conference held at the end of 2014, the government also proposed to "continue to implement active fiscal policies" to release consumption potential, so as to "enhance the driving force of domestic demand on economic growth and enable consumption to continue to play a fundamental role in promoting economic development". The relationship between fiscal expenditure and residents' consumption can be divided into two categories from the impact direction: first, fiscal expenditure promotes residents' consumption, that is, fiscal expenditure has a crowding in effect on Residents' consumption; second, fiscal expenditure inhibits residents' consumption, that is, fiscal expenditure has a crowding out effect on residents' consumption. Scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on the effect of fiscal expenditure on household consumption, but they have not reached a consistent conclusion.
 
Foreign scholars have long begun to study the impact of fiscal expenditure on household consumption. Bailey (1971) found that the goods and services provided by the public sector were squeezed out through research θ (0< θ< 1) For private consumption of units, the relationship between fiscal expenditure and household consumption is substitution, that is, fiscal expenditure has a crowding out effect on household consumption [1]. Serletis and shahmoradi (2010) believe that there is a certain substitution relationship between fiscal expenditure and household consumption, and fiscal expenditure also has a crowding out effect on household consumption. However, devereu et al. (1996) studied the impact of fiscal expenditure on household consumption from the perspective of the impact of fiscal expenditure on macro-economy, and found that fiscal expenditure has a crowding in effect on household consumption. Monacelli and Perotti (2006), ravn et al. (2007), beetsma and giuliodori (2011) all believe that the increase of government purchasing expenditure will improve residents' consumption level, that is, fiscal expenditure has a crowding in effect on Residents' consumption [2].
 
Domestic scholars have also conducted a lot of research on the effect of fiscal expenditure on household consumption. These studies can be divided into two aspects: first, study the total effect of fiscal expenditure on household consumption; The second is to study the structural effect of fiscal expenditure on household consumption.
 
(1) Fiscal expenditure affects the aggregate effect of household consumption. Li Guangzhong (2005) built an econometric model based on the theory of optimal choice of consumers, and used samples from 1952-1978 and 1979-2002 to empirically analyze the relationship between government expenditure and residents' consumption. The results show that since the reform and opening up, the relationship between government expenditure and residents' consumption has been complementary [3]; Zhang Zhijue, Wu Dingyu (2007), Chen Chong (2011), Hu Yonggang and Guo Xinqiang (2012) also believe that fiscal expenditure has a crowding in effect on household consumption through empirical analysis by building models [4-6]; Hu Yonggang and Guo Changlin (2013) analyzed the impact of fiscal policy on household consumption through dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) using China's quarterly data from 1996q1 to 2011q4. The research shows that fiscal expenditure expansion will lead to an increase in household consumption [7]. However, the research conclusions of other scholars are diametrically opposite to the above. Huang Yulin (2005) studied China's economy after the reform and opening up by constructing a three sector real economic cycle model. The results show that government expenditure has a certain crowding out effect on household consumption after the reform and opening up [8]; Shen Lin and Ma Dan (2007), Fang Fuqian and sun Wenkai (2014) also believe that government expenditure has a certain crowding out effect on household consumption through empirical analysis [9-10]. (2) The structural effect of fiscal expenditure on household consumption. Chu Deyin and Yan Wei (2009) used the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2007 to empirically analyze the relationship between local government expenditure and rural residents' consumption. The results show that local government fiscal expenditure on agriculture has a significant crowding in effect on rural residents' consumption, while the correlation between transfer expenditure and rural residents' consumption is not obvious [11]. Through empirical analysis, Chen Chong (2011) believes that government investment expenditure and livelihood expenditure have a crowding in effect on Residents' consumption, while consumer expenditure has a crowding out effect. Liu Xiaochuan and Wang Licheng (2014) used the multiplier accelerator model to study the impact of government expenditure on Residents' consumption. The results showed that general public affairs expenditure had a crowding out effect on Residents' consumption, livelihood government expenditure had a crowding in effect on Residents' consumption, and economic affairs expenditure had an "inverted U-shaped" effect on Residents' consumption after crowding in [12]. Wu Xiaoli and Chao Jiangfeng (2014) used the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model framework to study the impact of fiscal expenditure structure on Residents' consumption rate, and pointed out that government consumption expenditure will crowd out residents' consumption in the long term, while investment expenditure has a crowd in effect on Residents' consumption in the long term, and service expenditure and transfer payment can effectively crowd into residents' consumption [13].

The above research literature, especially the domestic literature, is based on the national level research on the impact of fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption, and there is little specific research on the impact of a local government fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption (Li Guangzhong, Huang Yulin, Hu Yonggang, etc.). In the current government financial expenditure, except for the national defense and diplomatic expenditure that needs to be borne by the central government, other expenditures are shared by the central and local governments, or borne by local governments alone. Among them, education expenditure, medical and health expenditure, social security expenditure and other expenditures related to people's livelihood are jointly borne by the central and local governments, mainly local governments. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of fiscal expenditure of a local government on Residents' consumption alone. At the same time, when studying the effect of fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption, some scholars did not take into account the particularity of China's urban-rural dual structure (Chen Chong, etc.); Or taking this particularity into account, but not at the same time study the impact of fiscal expenditure on the consumption effect of urban and rural residents, and analyze the differences between the two (Chu Deyin, etc.). Based on this, this paper builds a panel model, takes 16 prefecture level cities in Anhui Province as samples, empirically analyzes the impact of local government fiscal expenditure on urban and rural residents' consumption in Anhui Province from the perspectives of total amount and structural effect, and studies the dispute between "crowding in" and "crowding out" of local government fiscal expenditure and various expenditure items on urban and rural residents' consumption, It also analyzes the differences between the effects of local government expenditure on the consumption of urban and rural residents. The arrangement structure of the subsequent part of this paper is as follows: the second part expounds the mechanism of local government fiscal expenditure affecting residents' consumption; The third part constructs the model of local government fiscal expenditure affecting residents' consumption; The fourth part empirically estimates and analyzes the results of the impact of local government fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption in Anhui Province; The last part is the main conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper.
 
2、 The mechanism of local government expenditure affecting residents' consumption
 
This paper uses Keynes' national income determination theory to analyze the mechanism of local government fiscal expenditure affecting residents' consumption. Here, the economic structure differences between regions and the domestic industrial division are not considered. At the same time, assuming that the local government jurisdiction is a closed economy, the introduced income determination model is:
 
According to the different economic nature, local government fiscal expenditure can be divided into purchasing expenditure and transfer expenditure. First, purchasing expenditure directly affects production and employment. The increase of purchasing expenditure will directly increase the total social demand. When the total social supply is less than the total demand or the economy does not reach full employment, the total social supply will also increase and employment will increase. Residents can choose better employment opportunities or more people get employment opportunities, which will increase residents' income. With other conditions unchanged, the increase of residents' income leads to the increase of residents' consumption, that is, G ↑ → ad ↑ → s ↑, employment ↑ → y ↑ → YD ↑ → C ↑; Secondly, transfer expenditure directly affects income distribution. When transfer expenditure, such as social security expenditure, is increased, residents' disposable income is increased through distribution and redistribution, so as to promote residents' consumption, that is, tr ↑ → YD ↑ → C ↑.
 
The above is an analysis of the overall impact of fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption. Because different expenditure items affect residents' consumption in different mechanisms, it is necessary to analyze the mechanism of each expenditure item affecting residents' consumption, that is, the structural impact of fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption. First, administrative expenditure and household consumption. Administrative expenditure is the expenditure incurred by the government in performing the basic function of administrative management. The government maintains the production and living order through administrative management, provides a stable and safe production and living environment for enterprises and residents, and is conducive to social and economic development and promotes residents' consumption. When the scale of administrative expenditure is too large, it means the expansion of government scale and the strengthening of the degree of intervention. At this time, the government may over intervene in the market, and there is a possibility of "offside". The excessive intervention of the government may cause the distortion of the market mechanism, thus inhibiting residents' consumption; Second, education expenditure and household consumption. Government educational expenditure directly affects the improvement of education level and the quality of labor force, and the quality of labor force directly affects the wage level of workers. By increasing education expenditure, improving school infrastructure and introducing excellent talents, the government will improve the level of teachers and teaching quality of schools, so as to improve the education level of workers and improve their professional skills and quality. The improvement of workers' professional skills and quality can create greater value for enterprises, and the level of workers' wages will also be improved, thus promoting the consumption level of workers; Third, social security expenditure and household consumption. First, social security expenditure has the function of income redistribution, which directly increases residents' disposable income and thus promotes residents' consumption. Second, the increase of social security expenditure can reduce the uncertainty of residents' expected expenditure and indirectly improve residents' consumption desire; Fourth, medical and health expenditure and household consumption. The government improves the level of medical services and medical security by increasing medical and health expenditure, thereby improving the health level of residents, and health has a significant impact on the wage rate (Tian Yanfang, 2013). Therefore, residents' good health level promotes the increase of income level, which further promotes residents' consumption.

3、 Model construction and data description
 
(1) Model construction
 
Under the framework of the theory of optimal choice of consumers, this paper uses the ideas of Chu Deyin (2009), Sui dangchen (2012), Zou Hong (2014) and other documents for reference to build a panel data model with residents' consumption as the explanatory variable and local government fiscal expenditure as the core explanatory variable. Considering that residents' income has an important impact on Residents' consumption, in order to improve the accuracy and scientificity of the estimated results of the model, residents' income is also added to the model. The specific empirical analysis model is shown in formula (4):
 
Model (4) is the model of the effect of local government fiscal expenditure on the total consumption of urban and rural residents. Among them, subscripts I and t represent the ith prefecture level city and the t-th period respectively, C represents the per capita consumption level of urban and rural residents, Y represents the per capita income level of urban and rural residents, ZC represents the per capita fiscal expenditure, and in order to reduce the volatility of variables, all variables are treated logarithmically.
 
Considering that this paper also analyzes the structural effect of local government fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption, according to the previous theoretical analysis, the per capita fiscal expenditure variables in model (4) are replaced by per capita administrative expenditure, per capita education expenditure, per capita social security expenditure and per capita medical and health expenditure, The empirical analysis model is shown in formula (5): model (2) is the model of the effect of local government fiscal expenditure on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents. Among them, subscripts I and t represent the ith prefecture level city and the t-th period respectively, XZ represents the per capita administrative expenditure, JY represents the per capita education expenditure, Sb represents the per capita social security expenditure, YL represents the per capita medical and health expenditure, and all variables are processed by logarithm.
 
(2) Data description
 
The analysis sample of this paper is 16 prefecture level cities in Anhui Province, and the time span is 2008-2013. Because Anhui province carried out the administrative division reform (abolishing Chaohu City) in 2011, in order to ensure the integrity of the data, this paper will incorporate the annual data of Chaohu City before 2011 into Hefei city for processing. All the original data in this paper are from Anhui Statistical Yearbook (2009-2014). In order to enhance the credibility and scientificity of the empirical results, all the data are deflated with the consumer price index (2008=100). The per capita variable of all kinds of fiscal expenditure in the model refers to the total amount of such fiscal expenditure in a prefecture level city divided by the number of registered residence population in the city. For example, the per capita fiscal expenditure is obtained by dividing the total amount of fiscal expenditure in a prefecture level city by the total number of registered residence population in the city, in which the administrative expenditure is replaced by general public service expenditure. The statistical characteristics of each variable are shown in Table 1.
 
4、 Empirical estimation results and analysis
 
(1) The aggregate effect of local government expenditure on Residents' consumption
 
1. The aggregate effect of local government expenditure on urban residents' consumption
 
Because this paper only analyzes the situation in Anhui Province, this paper believes that the fixed effect model is more suitable in theory than the mixed regression model and random effect model. At the same time, according to the covariance analysis test, this paper finally selects the fixed effect variable intercept panel model to empirically analyze the total effect of local government fiscal expenditure on urban residents' consumption. The empirical estimation results are shown in column (1) of Table 2.
 
The estimated results show that: first, the coefficient of per capita fiscal expenditure is significantly positive, indicating that the fiscal expenditure of local governments in Anhui province promotes the consumption of urban residents, that is, the fiscal expenditure of local governments has a "crowding in" effect on the consumption of urban residents; Secondly, the regression coefficient of per capita fiscal expenditure is 0.1827, indicating that under other conditions unchanged, the per capita fiscal expenditure increases by one percentage point, and the per capita consumption of urban residents increases by an average of 0.1827%; Finally, the per capita income and per capita consumption of urban residents change in the same direction, and the per capita income of urban residents increases by one percentage point, and the per capita consumption increases by an average of 0.4579%.
 
2. The aggregate effect of local government expenditure on rural residents' consumption
 
Through the covariance analysis test, this paper selects the fixed effect constant coefficient panel model to empirically analyze the total effect of local government expenditure on rural residents' consumption. The empirical estimation results are shown in column (2) of Table 2. According to the empirical estimation results, the regression coefficient of per capita fiscal expenditure is 0.0896, and it passed the t-test at the significance level of 10%, indicating that under other conditions unchanged, the per capita fiscal expenditure increased by one percentage point, and the per capita consumption of rural residents increased by an average of 0.0896%. This means that the fiscal expenditure of local governments in Anhui Province can promote the consumption of rural residents, that is, the fiscal expenditure of local governments also has a "crowding in" effect on the consumption of rural residents. At the same time, the per capita income of rural residents also promoted their consumption level. Under other conditions unchanged, the per capita income of rural residents increased by one percentage point, and the per capita consumption increased by an average of 0.6574%.

3. Analysis of the effect of local government expenditure on the total consumption of urban and rural residents
 
According to the estimated results in Table 2, local government fiscal expenditure has a "crowding in" effect on the consumption of urban and rural residents, but the degree of crowding in is different. The degree of crowding in of local government fiscal expenditure on the consumption of urban residents is higher than that of rural residents. This paper believes that this is due to the non equalization of public services. At present, the non equalization of basic public services in Anhui Province is relatively prominent, which gradually widens the gap between regions, between urban and rural areas, and between different groups in basic public services such as basic education, public health care, social security and so on. The public services enjoyed by urban residents are higher than those enjoyed by rural residents, which makes urban residents get more preferential treatment than rural residents when the government increases fiscal expenditure, so as to better promote the consumption of urban residents. At the same time, we can also know that the consumption elasticity of per capita income of urban and rural residents is also different. The consumption elasticity of per capita income of urban residents is less than that of rural residents, that is, the increase of per capita income of rural residents can promote the growth of their consumption level. This paper believes that this is mainly because the income level of rural residents is lower than that of urban residents, resulting in the consumption level of rural residents is also lower than that of urban residents. When the income level of residents rises, rural residents will spend more of their income on consumption to improve their living standards.
 
(2) The structural effect of local government expenditure on Residents' consumption
 
This paper not only analyzes the total effect of local government fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption in Anhui Province, but also analyzes the structural effect of local government fiscal expenditure on Residents' consumption. Because the sample period span of this paper when analyzing the effect of local government expenditure on Residents' consumption structure is short, and the reason for the short period is that China carried out the reform of government revenue and expenditure classification in 2006, and Anhui Province began to implement the new revenue and expenditure caliber from 2007, so that the sample can only start from 2007, this objective reason is insurmountable. Therefore, this paper adopts the form of mixed accumulation regression to empirically analyze the structural effect of local government fiscal expenditure on household consumption. For this reason, this paper can only use OLS to make empirical estimation on model (5), and the empirical estimation results are shown in Table 3.
 
According to the empirical estimation results in Table 3, first of all, the regression coefficients of per capita administrative expenditure are -0.1749 and -0.0796 respectively, and both pass the t-test at the significance level of 5%, indicating that under other conditions unchanged, the per capita administrative expenditure increases by 1%, and the per capita consumption of urban and rural residents decreases by 0.1749% and 0.0796% respectively, that is, the administrative expenditure of local governments has a "crowding out" effect on the consumption of urban and rural residents. This paper believes that this is because the administrative expenditure is a non productive consumption expenditure. Under the condition that the size of the government budget remains unchanged, the increase of administrative expenditure will inevitably reduce the expenditure on other aspects, such as social security, education, health care and other livelihood expenditures, which is not conducive to increasing residents' consumption. At the same time, the expansion of government administrative expenditure means the expansion of government scale and the strengthening of the degree of intervention. At this time, the government may over intervene in the market, and there may be "offside" possibility. The excessive intervention of the government may cause the distortion of the market mechanism, thereby inhibiting residents' consumption. Secondly, the regression coefficients of per capita education expenditure are 0.1994 and -0.0522 respectively, and the former passed the t-test at the significance level of 1%, while the latter did not pass the t-test, which means that local government education expenditure has a "crowding in" effect on urban residents' consumption, but the impact on Rural residents' consumption is not obvious. Thirdly, the regression coefficients of per capita social security expenditure have not passed the t-test, indicating that the impact of local government social security expenditure on the consumption of urban and rural residents is not obvious. This paper believes that this is because the social security system in Anhui Province is not perfect enough to reduce the uncertainty of residents' expected expenditure, resulting in the impact of social security expenditure on Residents' consumption is not obvious. Finally, the regression coefficients of per capita medical and health expenditure were 0.2998 and 0.2374 respectively, and passed the t-test at the significance level of 1%, indicating that under other conditions unchanged, the per capita medical and health expenditure increased by 1%, and the per capita consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 0.2998% and 0.2374% respectively, that is, the local government medical and health expenditure has a "crowding in" effect on the consumption of urban and rural residents. This paper believes that this is because the government increases the investment in medical and health funds, which is conducive to improving medical services and medical security, so as to improve the health level of residents. Good health level promotes the rise of wage income level, thus causing the improvement of residents' consumption level.

5、 Main conclusions and policy recommendations

Using the panel data of 16 prefecture level cities in Anhui Province, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of local government fiscal expenditure on urban and rural residents' consumption from the two dimensions of total amount and structural effect. The results show that from the perspective of aggregate effect, local government fiscal expenditure has a "crowding in" effect on the consumption of urban and rural residents, and the crowding in effect on the consumption of urban residents is more obvious. From the perspective of structural effect, the administrative expenditure of local governments has a "crowding out" effect on the consumption of urban and rural residents; Medical and health expenditure has a "crowding in" effect on the consumption of urban and rural residents; Education expenditure has a "crowding in" effect on the consumption of urban residents, but the impact on the consumption of rural residents is not obvious; The impact of social security expenditure on the consumption of urban and rural residents is not obvious.
 
Based on the above empirical analysis and conclusions, this paper gives the following policy recommendations: first, further increase the total fiscal expenditure of local governments in Anhui Province. In recent years, the total fiscal expenditure of local governments in Anhui Province has increased year by year, from 32.24688 million yuan in 2000 to 43496871 million yuan in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 22.16%. At the same time, the central economic work conference held at the end of 2014 also clearly called for "continuing to implement active fiscal policies". Based on the empirical conclusion of this paper, Anhui Province should further increase fiscal expenditure to promote the consumption level of urban and rural residents. At the same time, Anhui Province should further optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, reduce administrative expenditure, and increase expenditure on education, health care and other aspects. The administrative expenditure of Anhui province increased from 23.415.31 million yuan in 2008 to 46.91511 million yuan in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 40%; Education expenditure increased from 28625.57 million yuan in 2008 to 73658.82 million yuan in 2013, and medical and health expenditure increased from 103844.42 million yuan in 2008 to 36179.87 million yuan in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 51.46% and 69.68% respectively, both of which exceeded the growth rate of administrative expenditure. According to the empirical conclusion, administrative expenditure inhibits residents' consumption, while expenditure on education and health care promotes residents' consumption. Therefore, Anhui Province should further reduce administrative expenditure and increase expenditure on education, health care and other aspects, so as to control "three public" consumption, promote public consumption and make consumption flow.
 
Second, we should increase financial expenditure on social security and improve the social security system. The social security expenditure in Anhui province increased from 22.82005 million yuan in 2008 to 53.364.02 million yuan in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 46.77%, less than the fiscal expenditure growth rate of 52.82% in the same period. According to the empirical conclusion of this paper, the impact of social security expenditure on the consumption of urban and rural residents is not obvious. Based on this, Anhui Province should further increase social security expenditure, improve the social security system, improve the subsidy standards of basic medical insurance, basic pension and rural five guarantees for urban and rural residents, and truly achieve "more timely help, pay more attention to ensuring the basic livelihood of the people, and pay more attention to the life of low-income people", so as to reduce the uncertainty of residents' expected expenditure.
 
Third, we should vigorously develop the economy to improve the income level of residents and narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents. The empirical conclusion of this paper shows that income is also an important factor affecting the consumption of urban and rural residents. Therefore, Anhui Province should vigorously develop the economy, accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure, put the focus of economic work on the transformation of mode and structure, and strive to maintain stable economic growth, so as to promote the improvement of residents' income level. At the same time, Anhui Province should also effectively solve the problems of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", unswervingly accelerate the transformation of agricultural development mode, vigorously promote agricultural modernization, improve the policy of strengthening and benefiting agriculture, continue to increase farmers' income, constantly strengthen agriculture, enrich rural areas and benefit farmers, and narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents.
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