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民间金融公司风险传导机制分析

时间:2022-06-10 来源:未知 编辑:梦想论文 阅读:
With the deepening of China's financial reform, non-governmental financial companies have made great contributions to China's economic development with the rapid development of their scale and number. However, the run on private financial companies occurred for a period of time, which made the risk of private financial companies become the focus of attention from all walks of life. The risks of private financial companies often erupt in a concentrated way, forming a crisis to some extent, and have a transmission effect, so we must pay close attention to it.
 
Risk transmission, in a narrow sense, mainly refers to that a single enterprise organization, under the conditions of fierce market competition, is constrained by the internal and external environment, resulting in uncertainty in a certain link of the enterprise's business process, which will be transmitted to a specific link of the enterprise's business activities with the help of some media, and eventually make the enterprise's business objectives deviate or unexpected. In a broad sense, in addition to conducting risks within enterprises, risks will also be conducted among enterprises with interest relevance, and even will be transmitted to all interest chain groups along the interest chain according to a certain path, so as to make risks circulate among external related enterprises.
 
The financial crisis of private financial companies is firstly the result of risk transmission within the enterprise. Secondly, the risk will not only have an impact on itself, but also on the whole system, causing a collective financial crisis. At the same time, it will involve the real economy and investors, and even have a certain impact on the formal financial system. Therefore, the risk transmission of this paper is mainly discussed in a broad sense.
 
1、 The theory of risk transmission of private financial companies
 
(1) Herd behavior theory
 
Herd behavior is to explain the foam economy from a psychological perspective. It believes that decision makers, based on information asymmetry, are difficult to accurately predict the future development trend of things, and can only choose to make decisions based on the behavior of others. In the process of this behavior being continuously strengthened, the same psychology will be generated, thinking that this behavior is rational, leading to the occurrence of herd behavior. In the process of raising funds, the vast majority of investors are tempted by high interest returns. On the premise of lack of understanding of investment risks, they often think that their investment is risk-free or low-risk according to the investment behavior of others, and invest blindly. In the absence of strict monitoring by laws and regulations, private financial companies have carried out a large number of debt financing, which undoubtedly increased their own financial risks.
 
(2) The theory of "prisoner's dilemma" and its synthetic fallacy
 
"Prisoner's dilemma" mainly reflects that the best behavior of an individual is not necessarily the best behavior of a group at certain critical moments. The behavior of bank run in reality can be effectively explained by the theory of "prisoner's dilemma". The "prisoner's dilemma" mainly stems from the asymmetry of information. When there is uncertainty about the other party's behavior and no agreement can be reached, each party will be forced to make the most favorable choice. However, the overall choice result is not the most ideal. When a private financial company has temporary payment difficulties, investors think that the company has fallen into payment difficulties. For investors, the wisest action is to join the run, which undoubtedly further exacerbates the company's financial crisis. If all investors can reach a unified understanding and do not rush to withdraw, it will be possible to improve their common interests. However, investors are unlikely to reach an agreement based on their distrust of each other. Therefore, the rational behavior of a single investor is to take advantage of the company's ability to pay and withdraw money before other investors. For individuals, this behavior is rational, but from the perspective of the collective, there is no guarantee that the collective behavior is also rational. There is a complex and close relationship between private financial companies, which may lead to chain collapse. This is the synthesis fallacy.
 
2、 Prerequisites for risk transmission of private financial companies

(1) Existence of risk sources
 
1. exogenous risk.
 
(1) Affiliated enterprises. The risks brought by affiliated enterprises are mainly reflected in the credit and capital repayment ability of affiliated enterprises. Affiliated enterprises are often small and medium-sized enterprises. Different from large enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises have narrow financing channels, high financing costs, and uneven quality of operators. Once the business performance is poor, it is not only difficult to effectively pay the high interest of private financial companies, but also difficult to repay the principal. This can easily lead to the debt default of private financial companies, and then affect the financial status of private financial companies. If the business operators lack the sense of responsibility, disappear in the event of a crisis and escape responsibility, it will also aggravate the difficulty of fund recovery of private financial companies.
 
(2) Cooperative bank. As a large-scale monopoly industry, the banking industry is strong in terms of loans. At the same time, the bank's lending policy has considerable uncertainty and is vulnerable to the impact of the national fiscal policy. When the policy is tightened, the bank will tighten the loan business, or even only receive no loan, or require early repayment of the loan. If a private financial company or part of its investors' funds come from cooperative banks, it will undoubtedly reduce the sources of funds of the private financial company, especially when the company has difficulty in recovering its funds, which will further aggravate the risk of the capital chain rupture of the private financial company.
 
2. endogenous risk. First of all, in order to expand their own scale, private financial companies continue to raise funds from outside. In order to effectively raise more funds, they even do not hesitate to raise the loan interest rate. However, it is likely that due to the lack of funds, it is difficult to repay the loans in time, which will bring financial risks to the enterprise. Secondly, due to the high cost of funds raised, in order to effectively offset the cost and ensure the income, private financial companies tend to invest in projects with high risks in order to obtain higher profits. Thirdly, the private financial industry has not developed for a long time in China. The professional quality and level of its employees are uneven, and its customers are from all walks of life. It is likely that they do not understand enough about some investment projects, which is easy to make the investment projects fail, and then increase the financial risk of private financial companies.
 
(2) The accumulation of financial risk has reached a certain critical point
 
The main business activities of private financial companies determine the generation of risks. Whether it is fund-raising activities, investment activities, or even the fund management activities carried out within the company, there are risks. However, risks are not transmitted when they are generated, but are accumulated and resolved within the company, and are constantly generated, accumulated, weakened and resolved. Private financial companies themselves cultivate risks in their services Accepting risks while transferring and resolving risks in a timely manner is the circular business activities of private financial companies. Without these activities, private financial companies will no longer exist. When the financial risk accumulates to a certain critical point and fails to take effective measures to resolve it in time, financial crisis and even bankruptcy will occur. 3、 The carrier and path of risk transmission of private financial companies
 
(1) Carrier of risk transmission
 
The carrier of private financial risk transmission mainly refers to the medium that carries, spreads and catalyzes risk fermentation in the process of private financial activities. Through these media, the risks of private financial companies can be accepted and transmitted. The transmission carrier is indispensable. Without the carrier, the private financial business will not be able to carry out effectively. In order to effectively block the spread of risks, it is necessary to identify risks and take strict measures to regulate them when necessary. The risk transmission carriers of private financial companies mainly include the following:
 
1. capital carrier. The business operation of private finance can not be separated from the support of funds. It can be said that funds run through the whole process of the operation of private financial companies, including generation, effective operation and scale expansion. But in this process, there are uncertainties in every link and risks everywhere. In the risk transmission activities with funds as the carrier, risks are mainly conducted in the financing, investment, operation and other links of private financial companies. The financing risks of non-governmental financial companies are mainly reflected in two aspects: first, they can not raise the funds needed for operation; Second, the company cannot repay the principal and interest on schedule. In the case of diversified investment channels, in order to effectively raise funds, private financial companies do not hesitate to use high interest returns as bait, which undoubtedly increases the capital cost of private financial companies and reduces the expected income. In addition, due to the high cost of capital, in order to ensure its return on investment, private financial companies can only invest their capital in projects with higher risks, hoping to obtain higher investment returns, which leads to great risks in their investment. If the non-governmental financial companies can not obtain rich profits from the investment projects, or even can not successfully recover the costs, the risks will be fed back to the financing link, and even affect the relevant stakeholders.
 
2. information carrier. In the financial activities of private financial companies, a series of risks will arise due to asymmetric information. In order to gain the trust of investors, private financial companies may deliberately conceal investment risks by providing false information to raise funds. When carrying out investment activities, private financial companies may not be able to effectively identify the financial information provided by the investee due to the limitations of the professional ability of their employees, which may lead to the private financial companies not only unable to obtain income, but also may lead to losses, leading to financial crisis.
 
3. personnel carrier. Personnel are important elements of private financial activities and play a vital role in the operation of private financial activities. Their behavior affects the interests of all parties inside and outside the private financial system. For example, the employees of private financial companies may collude with the investees, so that the subjects who could not have obtained the investment can finally be invested, resulting in default and debt collection. In addition, the bank employees who have the right to control the funds may be driven by the interests and make the credit funds flow into the private financial market in an illegal way. Once the private financial market fluctuates, it is bound to affect the safety of bank credit funds.

(2) Conductive path
 
Risk transmission is systematic and comprehensive. According to the way of risk transmission, the transmission path can be divided into the following two types. One is that due to the deviation and uncertainty existing in the business process of the enterprise, the risk originates from within the enterprise and brings risks to the enterprise itself and relevant external entities through the transmission and amplification of the interest chain, specifically including: from within the enterprise to external investors; From internal to external benefit related enterprises; The risk transmission within the private financial system. The other is that the risk arises outside the enterprise. As the enterprise and the external environment will continuously exchange funds and information, once the risk arises, it will be gradually transmitted and spread to the internal production and operation process of the enterprise, resulting in inconsistency in the business objectives of the enterprise, including: from external investors to the enterprise; From external interest related enterprises to enterprises; The risk transmission within the private financial system. In general, there are several ways of risk transmission:
 
1. risks are conducted between private financial companies and the real economy. There is a close relationship between private financial companies and the real economy. Many real economies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are mainly funded by private financial companies. Once the real economy is difficult to operate and a financial crisis occurs, it will undoubtedly hinder the normal business development of private financial companies. Conversely, if the private financial companies encounter financial difficulties, it will inevitably lead to the panic contraction of capital supply in the private financial market. For those real economies that mainly rely on private financial financing, it will affect their normal financing and operating activities, so the risks will be transmitted between the private financial companies and the real economy.
 
2. risks are conducted between private financial companies and the formal financial system. The business development of private financial companies is inextricably linked with the formal financial system. Driven by high interest returns, many enterprises and individuals, even private financial companies themselves, will try to obtain low-cost capital sources from banks and obtain income through investment in high-risk projects. Once the private financial companies have financial crisis, it will endanger the security of the banking system. When many real economies have difficulties in capital turnover, they will repay bank loans by borrowing funds from private financial companies. Once the capital chain of private financial companies breaks, the real economy loses the source of further fund-raising, and it is difficult to repay bank loans, resulting in a large number of bad debts of banks and transmitting risks to the formal financial system. Conversely, when there are a large number of bad debts in the formal financial system, the scale of external loans will be reduced, and it is difficult for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises or private financial companies to raise funds from the formal financial system, which makes it difficult to improve their operating conditions in the extreme lack of funds.
 
3. risk transmission among private financial companies. Due to the similarity and relevance in the nature of the business of private financial companies, once a private financial company has payment difficulties, investors will be eager to ask for its funds from the private financial companies out of consideration for the security of its funds, and other investors will also ask their respective financing subjects for timely payment of principal and interest, thus forming a chain effect. When it is difficult for private financial companies to further raise funds to deal with such emergencies, it is likely to cause a collective financial crisis for private financial companies.
 
4. risk transmission between private financial companies and investors. If the capital chain of private financial companies is broken, it will directly lead to the difficulty for investors to obtain the expected return, or even to recover the investment principal, causing losses to investors, and may trigger panic, which will have a certain impact on social stability. At the same time, affected by the negative news, investors will no longer provide funds to private financial companies. In such a vicious circle, risks are transmitted and expanded between private financial companies and investors.
 
4、 Several ways of risk transmission of private financial companies
 
(1) Agglomerative conduction
 
As there are complex business transactions and interest relationships among enterprises in the system cluster, even small risk factors may be transmitted along the interest chain. Once they are gathered to a certain extent, they will produce energy effect, which is called agglomeration transmission. Heinrich believes that the failure of a key link in an interconnected system may cause a series of chain reactions. Judging from the financial crisis of private financial companies in recent years, once small and medium-sized enterprises are difficult to bear the high capital cost due to the recession of the market, this risk will be transferred to private financial companies and their investors, and even the formal financial system will not be spared, so that the capital suppliers will suffer property losses. This is what we call the domino effect. (2) Amplified conduction
 
According to the butterfly effect theory, there are countless connections between things, and the connections between them are subtle and universal. Even a relatively small factor may cause a huge chain reaction in the whole system, and even bring a tsunami like rapid scale change. The amplification and transmission effect of risk can be explained by the butterfly effect. When the country adopts a tight monetary policy, banks will tighten their loan scale, and private financial companies will become the last way for small and medium-sized enterprises to finance. If the private financial companies are tempted by the high return on investment, or the employees are not aware of the risks, it will inevitably lead to the flow of social funds into those enterprises that should not be supported by funds, thus causing the private financial companies to have a financial crisis. If the guidance and control are not timely, it will cause a series of adverse reactions in private financial companies.
 
(3) Boost conduction
 
Boost conduction is based on the demonstration effect of broken windows. It believes that the environment has a strong demonstration and inducement. When some bad phenomenon is not stopped when it first appears, it is left unchecked. In fact, it is to induce people to imitate, or even intensify. On the contrary, if someone stops this behavior at the first time, this phenomenon may disappear. Private financial companies lack the awareness of risk prevention and control. In order to compete for customers, they do not carry out effective economic evaluation on small and medium-sized enterprises in urgent need of funds, and blindly lend funds to enterprises with poor financial conditions. When a small and medium-sized enterprise breaches the contract, but the private financial companies do not effectively curb it, in essence, it will imply that other small and medium-sized enterprises breach the contract is not terrible. Just because the cost of "broken windows" is relatively low, other subjects will imitate it one after another, resulting in a large number of funds of private financial companies difficult to recover.
 
(4) Change conduction
 
Change transmission is a way of risk transmission and diffusion under the coupling effect. The theory of coupling effect means that many systems will be mutually repulsive and attractive with the help of some medium under the condition of force action and reaction. In the process of non-governmental financial risks being conducted, various risk factors collide with each other, which eventually changes the risk flow and risk intensity. According to the change of risk intensity, the coupling effect can be divided into pure coupling effect, strong coupling effect and weak coupling effect. The so-called pure coupling effect means that during the transmission process of risk factors, the risk flow and intensity will only fluctuate in a small range without much change, and the transmission will produce the effect of 1+1=2. The strong coupling effect means that the risk flow and intensity of private financial companies may produce infinite amplification risk effect through the transmission path of various lines under the influence of internal and external environment. In short, the transmission produces a 1+1>2 effect. In this case, we should actively take measures to block the spread of risk and transform the strong coupling effect into the weak coupling effect. On the contrary, the flow and intensity of private financial risks gradually weaken or disappear in the transmission process, indicating that the effect is 1+1<2, which is a weak coupling effect, indicating that private financial companies have taken scientific precautions against risks in the process of operation.
 
5、 Conclusion
 
Just because the risks of private financial companies have a transmission effect and cover a wide range, it is necessary to study the problem of private financial risk transmission, which is not only a new topic in the field of risk management, but also has a certain practical significance for risk management. This paper mainly defines the concept of risk transmission, points out the carrier and path of risk transmission, and introduces the way of risk transmission, which provides a theoretical basis for risk management.

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